Monday, June 6, 2011
1Rev and 1PB considerations
The first reversal and the first pullback generally give large moves in the AM and its necessary to correctly identify them. Often the price action regarding them are not very clear and today's action showed some of the things to watch out for.
b6 was a poor signal for a first reversal since it was a 1t doji bar with almost complete overlap. b7 was a poor 1PB since it forced an entry beyond the extreme of the day. In this special case, it was a 1tf, which is usually an OK entry in a hard trend.
b11 was an outside bar and is to be expected to act as a trading range. Although I did buy this due to the strength of the bar, its a poor entry and a 2L PB or a second entry would be a better choice.
Technically, b13 is a 1PB short, but due to the small bar size and the fact that its following a possible reversal, its OK to skip it. 1PBs that are far away from the open need to be deep pullbacks or 2 legged unless market is in a hard trend. Given all the above, b13 is a riskier trade and its best to wait for more price action.
b16 is a first attempt to end the pullback after 4 bear bars and is a poor entry. Although the 2L PB at b18 was a poor bar, it could be entered because it was a second entry at the same price.