Thursday, August 25, 2011
A failed 1Rev can be a 1PB
A 1Rev or OR needs to be at a place where a reversal would make sense. If not, it is likely to fail. Today, the opening 2 bar reversal probably was the first reversal, but if it wasn't, then b3 is an attempt to give a first reversal.
The three minute chart on the left shows this much more clearly. 3m b5 attempted to reverse the opening move but since it wasn't near any place where a reversal would make sense such as ema or the extremes of the prior day, it failed.
Given that it was the first attempt to reverse three bear trend bars with strong closes, this probably was expected but what's more important was that a failure is often a 1PB (3m b6) in the direction of the original move. The risk to taking this of course is that a second attempt and the ema are very close.
However, when the second attempt to reverse it at the ema (b7) did not trigger, it was a confirmation of the 1PB and traders who were quick could probably sell below b7.
On hard trend days, the correct entries go far and go quick and there is really no latitude for delays. This is why new traders are better off trading off a single chart and try to focus on the best entries.
Fortunately, today we did get an A2 (b24), which is comparatively rare in a hard trend. Given the bar sizes, counter-trend trading was permissible after the trendline break (b17-23). On a normal sized day, fBOs should only be taken in the direction of the hard trend, since any counter-move is likely to fail or be otherwise unprofitable.