Wednesday, August 17, 2011
Normally hard trends open hard but today, the trend turned hard after reversal above the prior day's high. Unfortunately, I did not identify it on time and I missed the down move entirely waiting for A2s. The fH2 at b17 was probably the earliest clue that the trend was turning hard but at that point could have been simple BW.
Being a hard trend, any shaved or 1t low could be shorted namely, b21, b29 and b39. Also any 1tf could also be shorted below, regardless of how the bar closed but b41 and b47 were possibly too large.
Hard trends break but do not usually reverse (i.e., unlikely to go back to the upper part of the range) and therefore there was possibly only a weak play after the TL break at b58.