Wednesday, September 7, 2011
Extremely strong trends
Soft trends and hard trends are two types of extremely strong trends. These should never be traded counter-trend. When you see a large up gap on the open and the first bar has a 1tf giving a fade entry near the low of the bar, there is already a very good chance it will turn into a soft-trend day.
When the second pullback is also a 1tf (b5), its a sign of a very strong trend. This essentially means bulls are buying the low of every short signal.
A well formed two legged pullback that does not quite reach the ema at b17 is another indication of strength. Often the first deep pullback is your best bet for a day long swing on a day such as this. However, any deep pullback such as b52 or b77 could be swung.
Folks who missed entering the first deep pullback can fade every L2. A soft-trend is the easiest to trade and you should take every deep 2 legged pullback even if you are conservative.
Avoiding counter-trend trading is very important. The first successful counter-trend trade was off b48. You should normally skip the first one and take the second one (b64 or b67). In general never attempt counter-trend trades until you see a one-legged move to ema such as b48-51